IT'S THE MIDEAST, AFTER ALL – AT 11:23 P.M. ET:  It's now well understood that these "democratic revolutions" in the Mideast may not turn out well.  There's no democratic tradition, and some of the "countries" are actually legal fictions created by colonial powers.  Al Qaeda is taking note, and American counter-intelligence officials are worried.  From ABC News:

On the same day reports emerged of a new al Qaeda video that praised the revolutions sweeping the Arab world, one the U.S.'s top counter-terror officials warned the terror organization "thrives" in the political unrest that follows.

"The governments of Tunisia, Egypt, Libya and Yemen have drastically changed in the last six months," FBI Assistant Director of Counter-Terrorism Mark Giuliano said Thursday. "They are now led by transitional or interim governments, military regimes, or democratic alliances with no established track record on counterterrorism efforts. Al Qaeda thrives in such conditions and countries of weak governance and political instability -- countries in which governments may be sympathetic to their campaign of violence."

Giuliano made the comments at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy just hours before the first reports emerged of the new al Qaeda video, which features separate appearances by al Qaeda's number two commander, Ayman al-Zawahiri, and American-born key commander in al Qaeda in the Arabian Penninsula (AQAP), Anwar al-Awlaki, each praising the recent uprisings. In the hour-plus long video, al-Zawahiri orders Muslims in Egypt to create an Islamic state there and calls for the Arab armies of the Middle East to intervene in Libya to oust dictator Moammar Gadhafi before "Western aid... turns into invasions."

If Guiliano is wary of Islamic militant influence in the uprisings, especially in Libya, he's is not alone. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton expressed her fears the revolt in Libya would be exploited by terror groups at a Senate Foreign Relations Committee meeting in early March.

COMMENT:  We should take this very seriously.  There are no Tommy Jeffersons or Benny Franklins over there to keep things in order.  So far the situation in Egypt is far from ideal, with the Muslim Brotherhood gaining more and more influence.  Some of the Libyan rebel leaders have pasts that John Dillinger might admire. 

It would be a tragedy if the legitimate hopes of Arabs for modern, democratic societies were dashed.  It wouldn't be the first time either.  The Iranians overthrew the Shah in 1979, and look what they got.

April 16, 2011